Very, Very Early Handicapping

In politics, a week is close to an eternity so you can imagine what six and half months will be like. Nevertheless, you have to start somewhere and the first maps shading the various states are starting to show up.

There are minor deviations here and there, but the initial take is that Mr. Obama is starting out with 201 electoral votes and Mr. Romney is starting out with 180.

The states currently up in the air and not counted for either side are: Arizona (11), Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10) for 157 available electoral votes.


Now, this list varies from site to site. Michigan and Wisconsin are occasionally added to Mr. Obama's column, Arizona added to Mr. Romney's column, and Missouri listed as a toss-up state. We can quibble about the edges, but it would seem that at this point anyway, that the heavy money spending and campaigning will be primarily done in the above 12 states. Any wins by either side in states outside of this list that should "belong in the other column" will be seen as a major win during the election.

Obviously expect the numbers to shift and swing wildly as the months progress.